A user guide to regional trade

Source data

Data about subnational trade in goods is compiled by ONS Trade team. The dataset links together:

• HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) micro data, which is sourced from trade declarations,
• the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR)

By linking this data it is possible to estimate the import and export value to each individual local business unit.

Output data

ONS subnational trade in goods analysis is broken down into International Territory Levels (ITL) level 1, ITL level 2, ITL level 3, city regions, and industry.

The analysis also shows the proportion of goods from EU countries, non-EU countries and Top 20 partner countries.

Statistical disclosure control is applied to the subnational trade data before it is published on the ONS website.

Statistical disclosure control is applied to the subnational trade data before it is published. You can find more methodological information about the ONS subnational trade in goods analysis in the Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) report.

The subnational trade in goods dataset (along with written narrative) is published on the ONS website.

Availability of data

Estimates are published annually. The data is reported around one and a half years after the end of the reference period. The delay is to allow for source data to become available.

Concept being measured

Trade in goods covers transactions in general merchandise where changes of economic ownership occur between UK residents and the rest of the world. General merchandise most often refers to moveable goods, for example, cars.

Data series published by ONS only report trade on a Balance of Payments (BOP) basis. This means that trade is only counted when an economic change of ownership has occurred. ONS does not count trade where goods move across land borders but remain under the same ownership. For example, if a car company moves an engine between factories in different countries this would not count as trade because the engine is still owned by the same car company.

Strengths

We mainly source trade in goods estimates from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). They collect the raw data, and automatic corrections are built into their computer systems to cope with certain common types of error, such as invalid codes. There are credibility checks on the trade data for value and quantity.

The HMRC data is also administrative data. This means it will capture all movement of goods across borders because data collection is a legal requirement for tax purposes. The HMRC source data is comprehensive and has broad coverage. This means it is of high quality.

Limitations

While it is technically straightforward to compile statistics at the subnational level, there are considerable practical difficulties with gathering these statistics. This is because regional level data are needed to model regional estimates. Regional level data are often unavailable because most countries compile statistics at the national level. Sometimes it is necessary to separate out data to break down trade values from national level, which describes data about the whole of the UK, to subnational level, which describes data about devolved nations and English regions. From there, it can be broken down further into smaller territorial units.

Without detailed regional level data, we rely on the number of employees in each of the local units as a way of attributing trade to a region. The number of employees is used to work out the trade value of a local business unit based on an equal level of contribution from each employee. This approach allows us to estimate trade by each unit to the location where it is based. By doing this, we can estimate regional trade activities and compile regional trade statistics. The success of this employment-based approach is based on the assumption that each employee of an enterprise has a similar level of contribution to international trade.

Because HMRC collect data on a movement of goods basis by HMRC, we need to apply adjustments to ensure it also reflects changes of economic ownership. To conform to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) definition of international trade, we must both:

• make various adjustments to certain transactions which are not reported to HMRC
• exclude certain transactions that, although are reported by HMRC, do not involve a change in ownership

We must also deduct the estimates of the freight costs and insurance costs from the values submitted by HMRC. This is because the value needed for the balance of payments is the value of the goods at the point of export, which is at the customs border of the exporting country. HMRC measures the value of the goods as they arrive in the UK, so we need to deduct the costs associated with transporting the goods to the UK from their data.

It is more likely that it will be possible to identify individual businesses at lower geographical levels. This means the number of suppressed cells will increase. We have tried to limit the number of suppressed cells by reducing the number of industry categories or grouping industries together. This limits the detail of industry breakdowns.

Uses

Subnational trade in goods dataset was developed to help users understand regional trading patterns. Demand has grown for regional trade estimates since the EU exit referendum and because of the Government’s levelling up agenda.

The data is used by a variety of stakeholders, including:

• Department for Business and Trade (DBT)
• Cabinet Office
• Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC)
• devolved governments
• local authorities
• academics

The data is used to inform decisions on trade policy and promotion of trade. It is also used for research and to build a regional economic picture.

Source data

The starting point for subnational trade in services estimates is the Trade in Services granularity publication.

Trade in services by partner country statistics are made up of multiple administrative and survey data sources. The major survey source for many of the services categories is the International Trade in Services (ITIS) survey. This is used alongside other sources like the International Passenger Survey (IPS), and various administrative sources.

The ITIS Survey covers total exports and imports of services broken down by:

• 52 service types
• the country of destination
• the country of origin

International Passenger Survey (IPS) is used for estimates of travel services imports.

Bank of England data is also used to break down information about financial services to regional level.

Output data

Trade in services is broken down into International Territory Levels (ITL) level 1, ITL level 2, ITL level 3, city regions, and industry.

The analysis also shows the proportion of services from EU countries, non-EU countries and Top 20 partner countries.

Statistical disclosure control is applied to the subnational trade data before it is published on the ONS website.

Availability of data

The estimates are published annually. The data is reported around one and a half years after the end of the reference period. The delay is to allow for survey source data to be collected, cleansed, validated, and analysed.

Concept being measured

Trade in services covers the provision of services between UK residents and non-residents. Our data is consistent with the Balance of Payments manual (BPM6). This gives the international standards for our statistical releases.

Strengths

ONS is currently the only source of subnational trade in services estimates for all UK regions.

The International Trade in Services (ITIS) survey sample size is large. It includes approximately 32,000 businesses annually and a consistent part of the sample comes from contributors known to have international trade in services.

Businesses sampled from the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) belong to industries with a higher likelihood of trading overseas. Other data sources are used to provide more comprehensive coverage of industries not covered by the ITIS survey.

Limitations

We work out trade in services estimates by using employment as a proxy in the same way as our trade in goods release.

Without detailed regional level data, we rely on the number of employees in each of the local units as a way of attributing trade to a region. The number of employees is used to work out the trade value of a local business unit based on an equal level of contribution from each employee. This approach allows us to estimate trade by each unit to the location where it is based. By doing this, we can estimate regional trade activities and compile regional trade statistics. The success of this employment-based approach is based on the assumption that each employee of an enterprise has a similar level of contribution to international trade.

Trade in services estimates have been taken from surveys and other sources. You should treat the results with caution because they are likely to be less reliable than the results for trade in goods. This is because the quarterly estimates produced by our national trade in services team rely on a smaller sample size, whereas the subnational trade in goods output uses data from a larger annual dataset, so these data are considered better quality.

International trade in services (ITIS) data is not sampled at a regional level. This affects our ability to compare the ITIS data with data produced by the devolved administrations. Sample sizes at the lower regional levels can change a lot between years and lead to volatility in estimates, particularly at the international territorial level (ITL) 2 and 3 levels.

In the 2019 annual ITIS sample, regional boosts for Wales and Scotland were introduced to the sample to increase the representation of those regions. These boosts have also been funded up to the 2022 sample, but it is not certain if these will be included in future years.

An additional sample boost was funded by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) subnational trade team for the 2021 sample. The boost was introduced to increase the representation of subnational trade. This boost has also been funded up to the 2022 sample, but it is not certain if it will be included in future years.

With the boosts, the annual ITIS sample sizes are as follows:

• in 2019 there were 18,000 businesses in the sample
• in 2020 there were 22,000 businesses in the sample
• in 2021 there were 30,000 businesses in the sample

It is important to be aware that there will be errors in our estimates that are not because of the way we sample. These include errors of:

• coverage
• measurement
• processing
• non-response

We work to limit processing errors by carrying out quality assurance and have automated checks to identify errors.

Uses

Subnational trade in services dataset was developed to help users understand regional trading patterns. Demand has grown for regional trade estimates since the EU exit referendum and because of the Government’s levelling up agenda.

The data is used by a variety of stakeholders, including:

• Department for Business and Trade (DBT)
• Cabinet Office
• Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC)
• devolved governments
• local authorities
• academics

The data is used to inform decisions on trade policy and promotion of trade. It is also used for research and to build a regional economic picture.

Source data

The Welsh Government runs its own annual data collection exercise, which is called the Trade Survey for Wales (TSW). The TSW was established in 2019 and generates official statistics in development to estimate trade values, including sales and purchases, in services and goods to and from Wales, the rest of the UK, the European Union, and the rest of the world.

Around 8000 businesses with a presence, or “local units”, in Wales are invited to participate in the “push-to-web” survey. The survey is voluntary and typically has a response rate of around 16%.

You can find previous publications of the TSW with quality and methodology information on the Welsh Government website.

Output data

The TSW analyses data to estimate:

• sales of goods and services by businesses to Wales, the rest of UK, the EU, and the rest of the world
• purchases of goods and services by businesses from Wales, the rest of UK, the EU, and the rest of the world

The terms “sales” and “purchases” have been used because the survey covers domestic trade within Wales and the rest of the UK, as well as international exports and imports.

Where there are enough responses to the survey, the analysis is presented by business size. The categories are “small”, “medium”, and “large”. The analysis is also presented using 5 industry groupings:

• manufacturing
• construction
• trade, accommodation, and transport
• primary sector and utilities
• business and other services

Availability of data

The survey collects responses between September and December. There is a typical time lag of 2 years for publication. For example, data for 2021 would be collected in autumn 2022, which allows enough time for companies to have reconciled accounts for the previous year. The data would then be ready for publication in 2023.

Concept being measured

The TSW is a statistical survey intended to gather aggregated data on trade values. The results are used to generate provisional estimates of:

• sales from businesses in Wales
• purchases by businesses in Wales

The sample is selected to be representative of the businesses operating in Wales, although some sectors are excluded. The survey does not include direct to consumer purchases.

Strengths

The TSW is the only direct collection of trade data specific to business operations located in Wales. Businesses directly report the activity of their Welsh locations. This contrasts with existing regional statistics which collect UK level responses from which Wales level results are modelled.

The TSW:

• is the only trade survey collecting intra UK trade data which is broken down by all UK nations, and by businesses in Wales
• gives results that are broken down by business size — this is not possible with alternative data sources published by HMRC and ONS
• gives results that are broken down by Standard Industrial Classification (SIC)
• collects data about goods and services trade on a consistent basis
• has a methodology that allows estimates of the total trade made by businesses in Wales in all parts of the UK, the European Union (EU) and the rest of the world — this includes trade of goods and services
• is an experimental survey where the methodology is revisited regularly to improve the approach where possible
• allows for follow-up qualitative research with respondents

Limitations

There are limitations to the TSW. For example:

• low response rates affect the ability to produce some lower breakdowns — the response rate can be low because the TSW is a voluntary online survey
• some respondents provide estimated values in their responses — this means the values provided may not always be completely reliable
• feedback suggests that some businesses found it difficult to allocate sales to customers based in other parts of the UK

There are several instances where the analysis highlights “unallocated” sales or purchase data where the respondent was unable to provide details of a specific destination for the goods or services. This may lead to underestimates of the overall figures. The variability in the achieved sample over the years also affects our ability to make comprehensive comparisons between years. The results report presents only high-level comparisons between years. More detailed breakdowns have shown greater variability. You can find information about specific comparisons in the comparability and coherence sections of the results reports.

Incomplete coverage of businesses, sectors and total Welsh trade means the estimates do not cover all trade activity in Wales. This means they should not be used to work out a trade balance, nor compared to total gross value added (GVA) or gross domestic product (GDP). For example, only business purchases are covered by the data and direct to consumer purchases are missing. This means Welsh consumer spending abroad, for example, tourism imports, and consumer spending in other parts of the UK has not been captured. But the expenditure of tourists buying from businesses in Wales is captured.

Limitations also arise where respondents were asked to allocate trade based on their immediate partner in the supply chain, not the original source or final destination of a purchase or sale. This means the data may only show the movement of goods through supply chains within the UK and mask an international origin or final destination in the TSW results. This may be particularly significant for the retail sector using distribution hubs within the UK.

Uses

The Trade Survey for Wales was developed after the EU Exit Referendum. It was developed to allow Welsh Government direct access to trade data and help users understand regional trading patterns.

The data is used by:

• internal colleagues across the Welsh Government
• ONS
• the Office of the Internal Market
• interested academics

The data is used to build a better understanding of trade patterns and characteristics of businesses who trade. It informs decisions on trade policy and promotion of trade and is also used as a platform for further trade-related research.

Source data

The Northern Ireland Economic Trade Statistics or NIETS is a survey-based source, which was previously known as the Broad Economy Sales and Experts Statistics (BESES). The data is gathered through the Northern Ireland Annual Business Inquiry (ABI).

The ABI is an integrated survey that provides information on the value of the economic activity that businesses generate and associated expenditure across the main industrial sectors in Northern Ireland (NI). In the 2011 survey year, questions relating to the value of trade were added to the ABI questionnaire. We have added more questions in recent years to gather more trade related data. The trade data the ABI collects is treated as a separate dataset, known as the NIETS.

Output data

Trade data is mainly split by the following trade partners:

• Northern Ireland (NI)
• Great Britain (GB)
• Ireland (IE)
• Rest of Europe (REU)
• Rest of World (ROW)

Sales data to around 65 individual countries is also available. Comparable imports data from those same countries has been collected from the 2021 survey year onwards. There are some resourcing issues at NISRA at present, which mean it is unclear when new imports data for survey years 2021 and 2022 will be published.

Data can be further split by various characteristics such as industry sector, business employment size, and Local Government District.

You can find more information on the methodology and publication of the NIETS on the NISRA website. Visit the NISRA data portal.

Results from the NIETS are used in NISRA’s Overview of Northern Ireland Trade Slide Pack and Overview of Northern Ireland Trade with Great Britain Slide Pack.

Availability of data

NIETS results are published in December each year. This is approximately 6 weeks after the end of the fieldwork period and approximately 11 months after the end of the reference period. It is important to be aware that the latest year data is provisional and may be revised in the next reporting period.

Concept being measured

The NIETS is an annual measure of the sales and purchases of goods and services made by local businesses:

• within NI
• to and from markets outside NI

The data measures the annual value of trade and partner country. Data is not collected at product-level, which means that trade is split by industry.

Strengths

The NIETS:

• is currently the only source of data about trade between NI and GB
• captures smaller businesses — this is because businesses sampled must have a VAT turnover above £85,000 for the 2022 to 2023 survey year
• measures trade in both goods and services
• helps profile trade patterns by business characteristics, such as industry, business size, and geography
• allows trade to be consistently analysed at an individual record basis alongside other economic measures such as gross value added (GVA), capital expenditure (CAPEX), and participation in research and development (R&D)
• has a usual sample size of around 20% of the eligible business population — this is a huge number and results in high quality estimates, which allows for deep disaggregation of data
• is an accredited official statistic and meets the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality, and public value

Limitations

There are several limitations of the NIETS. For example the NIETS:

• is a survey-based data source, which means it has the associated limitations including respondent bias, error, gaps in survey coverage, and sampling errors
• uses the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) as a sample frame, which means trade by small businesses that does not meet the IDBR VAT or PAYE thresholds is not captured — but it is important to note this is likely to be an insubstantial level of trade
• includes a year delay between collecting the data and publishing the results

The NIETS excludes data about the following sectors:

• insurance and re-insurance industries
• agriculture, forestry and fishing
• public administration and defence
• local authority and central Government bodies in education and human health and social work activities
• local authority and central Government bodies in medical and dental practice activities

The survey only captures the value of trade over the year and partner country. It does not capture information about:

• the business making the purchase
• the products sold
• whether the goods are final products or are intermediate goods that will be used in a further production process
• the ultimate destination of any goods sold on
• transport or shipping routes

Uses

The Northern Ireland Executive’s Economic Strategy referred to the need to improve the measurement of Northern Ireland’s exports beyond that of the manufacturing sector. Following this recommendation, NISRA published initial estimates of “broad economy” sales and exports by industry sector in March 2015.

More recently, the NI Department for the Economy (DFE) published the Economic Recovery Action Plan: Rebuilding A Stronger Economy in February 2021. The plan recognised that promoting trade and investment will be an important part of recovery coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The DFE “Trade and Investment Strategy for a 10x economy” published in June 2021 also acknowledged that “[t]rade can support the ambitions of our ’10X Economy’ across the board: inclusive, green growth; diffusion of technology and innovation; and increased competitiveness. That is because trade is an engine of growth, without which the ability of our economy to grow would be constrained by its relatively small domestic market.”

Statistics such as the NIETS will be a vital source to monitor the effect of the interventions implemented.

The NIETS will be of interest to:

• government policy makers
• Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs)
• the business community
• economic commentators
• academics
• members of the public with an interest in the NI economy

The data has also been of significant interest to Departments involved in EU Exit preparations and negotiations. Users of the data include:

• the Department for the Economy (DFE)
• the Department of Agriculture Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA)
• the Department for Exiting the EU (DExEU)
• HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC)
• HM Treasury (HMT)
• the Office for National Statistics (ONS)

NIETS data has been an important part of a large portfolio of trade and EU Exit related reports and papers over recent years. It is also a major data source in the production of NI Input-Output tables.

Source data

HMRC’s Trade in Goods Statistics (TIGS) are a detailed dataset covering the UK’s trade in goods at a disaggregated country and product level. They are published monthly, quarterly and annually from trade declarations. They provide access to both aggregated and detailed data for over 9,500 commodities and around 200 partner countries, covering overseas trade.

HMRC’s TIGS consists of two main accredited official statistics publications: Overseas Trade in Goods Statistics (OTS) and its sub-product, Regional Trade in Goods Statistics (RTS). These statistics are accompanied by a range of trade datasets, including:

• exporters and importers details
• trade and commodity data downloads
• information on asymmetries

RTS provides a regional breakdown of HMRC’s monthly Overseas Trade Statistics (OTS) publication. This means it excludes:

• trade in services, such as banking and tourism
• intangibles, such as financial investments or transfers
• the movement of goods between regions of the UK
• non-monetary gold trade

The data needed for the regional allocation are taken from the following sources within HMRC and the ONS:

• Customs declaration data from HMRC
• Intrastat Survey data from HMRC
• Departmental Trader Register (DTR) data from HMRC
• VAT declaration data from HMRC
• Inter Departmental Business Register (IDBR) from ONS
• National Statistics Postcode Lookup data (NSPL) from ONS

In RTS, a business’ trade is allocated to a region based on the proportion of its employees employed in that region. To produce the RTS, a business is matched against data held in the IDBR. If a business has no match in IDBR, then the business is matched in Departmental Trade Register (DTR) by using its VAT or Economic Operators Registration and Identification (EORI) number. This means the postcode for the Head Office of the business can be identified. ​The Head Office postcode is then searched in ONS National Statistics Postcode Lookup file (NSPL) and its trade is allocated to that postcode. If no postcode match is found, the trade will be allocated as “Unknown”.​

Output data

RTS splits OTS data into 9 English regions and 3 Devolved Administrations. This is also known as the International Territorial level 1 (ITL1).

The statistics report trade values and net mass with country and aggregated commodity breakdown. The system for aggregation within RTS is based on the 2-digit headings from Revision 4 of the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). These headings are known as “SITC Divisions”.

RTS also reports business counts. The business counts are taken from trade declarations and relate to importing businesses, exporting businesses, or businesses that both export and import.

Trade declared through Customs declarations includes everything but trade in goods between NI and the EU. This data will not include businesses whose trade is made up entirely of consignments below the statistical threshold, which is anything below £873 in value or below 1000kg in weight.

There have been recent changes to data sources, which means that a new method for EU business counts was introduced in the first quarter (January to March) of the RTS in 2022. This caused a break in series from previous RTS EU business counts. This means EU and total business counts from the 2021 data period onwards are not comparable to RTS business counts published before 2021.

Availability of data

RTS data is published quarterly, about 10 weeks after the end of each quarter. For example, 2023 data for quarter 1 would be published in mid-June 2023. The delay is to allow for source data to become available.

Concept being measured

HMRC’s Trade in Goods Statistics are compiled in line with the recommended UN methodological guidelines on International Merchandise Trade Statistics (IMTS). This means HMRC’s OTS dataset records trade on merchandise basis and capture information about the movement of goods across borders. RTS publication then splits this data into UK regions at ITL1 level to provide a useful breakdown about the imports and exports of goods between regions of the UK and other countries.

Strengths

HMRC’s Regional Trade in Goods Statistics is a long running statistical series which provides an accurate picture of trade between the UK and the Rest of World. The data comes from administrative data sources. The coverage, timeliness and detail of the dataset is extensive. This regional information helps users support the economic decision-making and informs policy development.

Caveats and Limitations

RTS data is published at SITC 2-digit Divisional level to ensure the confidentiality of businesses. It is not possible to produce a more detailed breakdown of goods.

There is currently no method in place to collect information about Northern Ireland’s goods trade with EU countries where businesses are not VAT-registered. This means their trade value is estimated in these cases.

Not all trade can be assigned to one of the 9 English Regions, Wales, Scotland, or Northern Ireland. Where appropriate, this is referred to in the data as “Unallocated Trade”. Unallocated Trade is split into 2 sub-categories:

• “Unallocated – Known”, where the full detail of the trade is available but it is not appropriate to allocate it to a region
• “Unallocated – Unknown”, where the full detail of the trade is unknown and it is not possible to allocate it to a region

A new methodology was introduced in the publication for quarter 1 to calculate RTS EU business counts. This caused a break in series from previous RTS EU business counts. This means EU and total business counts from the 2021 data period onwards are not comparable to RTS business counts published before 2021.

Business counts published as part of RTS show some differences to the counts published in HMRC’s Trade in Goods by Business Characteristics (TGBC) release. The main differences are that:

• RTS excludes non-monetary gold traders, whereas TGBC includes them
• TGBC are counts of Enterprises whilst RTS mainly reports counts of VAT Registered businesses
• traders where the full details are not known are captured as “Unknown” in TGBC, but RTS captures them under the “Unallocated – Unknown” category and sets them to “0” business count

Uses

HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) introduced the Regional Trade in Goods Statistics (RTS) in January 1999. It was designed to support the economic decision-making of the devolved Scottish and Welsh Governments and other regional bodies within the UK.

The data is used to inform decisions on trade policy and promotion of trade. It is also used for research and to build a regional economic overview.

Source data

This annual publication subdivides the existing Regional Trade in Goods Statistics (RTS) into smaller UK geographic areas, known as International Territorial Level (ITL)2, and ITL3.

RTS provides a regional breakdown of HMRC’s monthly Overseas Trade Statistics (OTS) publication.

Output data

Following customer feedback HMRC began publishing experimental statistics, now known as official statistics in development, in March 2018 based on UK geographical areas smaller than the International Territorial Level 1 (ITL1) regions used in the RTS. This release reports on trade in goods at ITL1, ITL2 and ITL3.

Availability of data

RTS smaller geographies statistics is published in November each year. The data covers the previous calendar year.

Concept being measured

HMRC’s Trade in Goods Statistics are compiled in line with the recommended United Nations methodological guidelines on International Merchandise Trade Statistics (IMTS). This means, HMRC’s OTS dataset records trade on merchandise basis to capture the movement of goods across borders.

RTS data is compiled by merging trade data collected by HMRC with employment data from the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR). The trade of a business is allocated to a region based on the proportion of its employees employed in that region.

This experimental RTS smaller regions publication replicates the employee allocation method for RTS. This means these figures will aggregate to the published RTS ITL1 figures. But certain allocations used in the RTS are not disaggregated any further than ITL1. For example, the Below Threshold Trade Allocations and Fixed Link Energy Allocations are not disaggregated further then ITL1.

Strengths

The RTS smaller geographical areas publication helps users to see the further geographical breakdown of the RTS.

Caveats and Limitations

To ensure business confidentiality, the RTS smaller geographical areas publication reports the commodity breakdown at SITC 1-digit Divisional level to protect business confidentiality. It is not possible to produce a more detailed breakdown of the goods.

There is currently no method in place to collect information about Northern Ireland’s goods trade with EU countries, where businesses are not VAT-registered. This means their trade value is estimated in these cases.

Only the 99 pre-selected partner countries published in the RTS are included in this release. The other partner countries are reported under “Other” geographical regions. Data is available for a country if the country’s total trade, meaning their imports and exports combined, exceeds one per cent of the total trade of that country’s World Region. The percentage is based on a historical baseline. This does not apply to EU countries where data for all member states is available.

If a specific partner country cannot be found under a certain breakdown it may be because:

• the trade for that combination of variables is between 0 (which indicates no trade) and £499,999
• the trade has been suppressed under our statistical disclosure policy

Uses

HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) introduced the Regional Trade in Goods Statistics (RTS) in January 1999. It was designed to support the economic decision-making of the devolved Scottish and Welsh Governments and other regional bodies within the UK.

The data is used to inform decisions on trade policy and promotion of trade. It is also used for research and to build a regional economic overview.

Source data

Export Statistics Scotland (ESS) estimates the value of Scotland’s international exports and its exports to the rest of the UK. It does this by bringing together various sources of survey and administrative data for all sectors of the Scottish Economy.

Scotland’s Global Connections Survey (GCS) is one of the main sources of information for ESS. The GCS is an annual sample survey that the Scottish Government sends to a representative sample of approximately 6,500 companies with operations in Scotland. GCS is used to collect annual export data and it is the primary source for estimates of exports from Scotland to the rest of the UK.

You can find more information about the Global Connections Survey on the Scottish Government website.

The data collected by the GCS is supplemented with information from various data sources for different sectors. This includes:

• the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR)
• the ONS UK Monthly Business Survey (Production and Services)
• the ONS Annual International Trade in Services
• the ONS Annual Business Survey
• HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics
• Scottish Sea Fisheries statistics
• Higher Education Institution annual reports
• Scottish Government Banking Survey
• Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy Energy Trends statistics

ESS uses a process called imputation to produce an estimate of export values for all Scottish businesses. This is carried out based on a combination of:

• employment size band
• Standard Industrial Classification (SIC)
• enterprise region
• export status

The imputation methodology involves using data from GCS and the other data sources to make predictions about the value of exports for businesses that are similar to each other, based on these characteristics. If up-to-date information about a business’ exports is available from GCS, then it is assumed that another business that we do not hold export data for will have a similar export value for that year if it has a similar:

• employment size band
• Standard Industrial Classification (SIC)
• enterprise region
• export status

This allows an estimation of an export value for all businesses in Scotland, based on the sample obtained. The population of all businesses in Scotland is sourced from the IDBR, with businesses being allocated as Scottish based on having a majority employment share in Scotland. This is different from the top-down approach used in other sources, such as HMRC RTS data. This is because the ESS estimates the exports from the Scottish business population directly, rather than apportioning the exports of the UK business population.

Output data

ESS provides estimates of the nominal value of Scotland’s international and rest of UK exports. Trade values are reported in current prices and are not adjusted for inflation. The publication provides export estimates for companies classified by the 2007 UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) of economic activities. The SIC of the reporting company is used, which is based on their main economic activity. Data is published by industry as well as by:

• international exports
• exports to the rest of the UK
• exports to EU countries
• exports to non-EU countries

Data is also provided by destination country and size of business.

Statistical disclosure control is added to the ESS data before publication. This ensures that no published values will disclose confidential information about individual businesses. When providing export values to specific country destinations, any export values below £50 million are suppressed, as values at this low level may be less robust.

The latest ESS data tables are available on the Scottish Government’s website. Publications and commentary for the ESS are also available.

Availability of data

The latest available ESS data is from 2002 to 2019. Export values for previous years are often revised when new data is published.

Export Statistics Scotland (ESS) has previously been published at the end of January each year. Statisticians decided to delay the Global Connections Survey (GCS) 2019, which forms the basis of ESS, because of the COVID-19 pandemic and to allow businesses to concentrate on preparing for the end of the EU Exit Transition Period. This delay to ESS 2019 has also had a effect on the timing of the 2020 and 2021 publications.

Concept being measured

ESS reports the nominal value of both:

• goods physically exported from Scotland — for example, goods transported from a business in Scotland to elsewhere
• services exported from Scotland

The questions in the GCS survey to collect the nominal value of exports have not changed since it began in 2002. GCS defines international exports as direct sales to customers based outside the UK. This includes sales to visitors to Scotland.

If goods are sold to other parts of the UK and are then exported, they are counted as exports to the rest of the UK. They are not included in the estimates for international exports.

Strengths

ESS:

• covers exports from all sectors of the Scottish economy, including manufacturing and service sectors — it can be used to directly compare and assess the performance of different sectors
• covers the export of both goods and services within each sector
• is the primary source of estimates of Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK — it covers the rest of UK exports from all sectors of the Scottish economy, which enables a deeper understanding of Scotland’s trade relationship with the rest of the UK on a sector level
• is an accredited official statistics publication, meaning that these statistics meet identified user needs — they are produced, managed and disseminated to high standards and are explained well, according to the UK Statistics Authority
• is a source of continuity which can be used to assess longer-term trends in Scotland’s exports over time, in all sectors of the Scottish economy, for international exports, rest of the UK exports, exports to the EU, and exports to specific countries — this is because of the strong time series which spans from 2002 to 2019 in the latest release
• it uses many sources, including survey and administrative data, to produce estimates of Scotland’s exports — this ensures these values are as accurate as possible
• it excludes oil and gas, which can be volatile for Scotland — unlike other sources, oil and gas is excluded by not including companies from relevant SIC codes, which is different to excluding trade for the extra-regio territory, for example

Caveats and Limitations

ESS covers the value of exports only. It does not provide data on imports.

The figures exclude exports of oil and gas extracted from the UK continental shelf. This means that exports exclude companies classified under:

• “Extraction of crude petroleum” [SIC (2007) 6.1]
• “Extraction of natural gas” [SIC (2007) 6.2]

But exports of services provided to the oil and gas industry are included under:

• “Support activities for petroleum and natural gas extraction” [SIC (2007) 9.1]
• “Support activities for other mining and quarrying” [SIC (2007) 9.9]
• “Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis” [SIC (2007) 71]

It is possible that companies classified under other SIC codes are involved in oil and gas extraction, however it is clearly explained to survey respondents that sales of oil and gas should not be included in their answers.

Estimates of exports to the rest of the UK should be interpreted with caution. Companies are not legally required to report their accounts below UK level, which means that reporting may not be accurate below this level. As companies ship products across the UK, value is added at various stages of the supply chain. You can find articles discussing these issues in more detail in previous ESS publications, including Scottish Economic Statistics 2005 and Scottish Economic Statistics 2007.

The GCS is a voluntary survey, which can mean there are low response rates. This can affect the quality of the estimates. This also makes year on year comparisons less comprehensive. But GCS is only one of several sources used to produce these estimates. Where possible, GCS data are supplemented with complete administrative sources of information for relevant sectors. Our methodology also means we can estimate the value of a company’s exports for the latest year if they responded to the GCS in a previous year.

As with NIETS and other surveys that use the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) as a sample frame, GCS will not capture trade from small businesses that fall under the VAT or PAYE threshold. This is because these businesses are not included IDBR. But this is unlikely to be a substantial amount of trade.

ESS estimates the nominal value of exports and is not adjusted for inflation. This means export values may be affected by inflation. But data on Scotland’s exports adjusted for inflation is published as part of the Scottish Government’s GDP Quarterly National Accounts.

Uses

ESS should be used to determine estimates of the cash value of exports for Scotland.

The figures produced in the Export Statistics Scotland publication are of high interest to:

• government policy makers
• politicians
• the business community
• economic commentators
• academics
• members of the public with an interest in the Scottish economy

The international exports estimate is used in the Scottish Government’s National Performance Framework to monitor the National Indicator on “International Exporting”.

The ESS data also influenced much of the analysis produced as part of the Scottish Government’s export growth plan, called “Scotland: A Trading Nation“. This plan was published in May 2019. The data helped to understand Scotland’s export performance. This included an ambitious target of growing Scotland’s international exports from 20% to 25% of gross domestic product (GDP) over the 10 years to 2029. The ESS data will help measure and monitor progress towards this target as it is used to produce international export figures in Scotland’s Quarterly National Accounts.

The data from ESS is used to inform Scotland’s international trade policy. It also helps identify opportunities to develop policies to help Scottish businesses export goods and services to more markets.